Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts

Thursday, May 23, 2024

We Are Not In A Recession

 I don't think people know what the definition of a recession is.

Definition of recession: two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) - the value of all goods and services a country produces.

The last decline in GDP occurred from 2019 to 2020 - during Donald Trump's term. 

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDP

GDP has been steadily been increasing since.

https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Saturday, January 26, 2013

Going The Wrong Way

In the article State Surplus To Reach $485 Million; Revenues To Miss Projectionsthe Republican co-chairs of the Legislature's Joint Finance Committee, Sen. Alberta Darling of River Hills and Rep. John Nygren of Marinette, commented, "The revenue numbers prove we are moving in the right direction. Moving forward on the budget, we will continue to work in a cautious and conservative manner to make sure that taxpayers' funds are spent wisely."

Yet, actually, all the numbers show is that Wisconsin has decreased spending (demand) during a recession. Exactly the opposite of what economics teaches. And, which is why Wisconsin ranks 42nd in job growth among the states over the last year.

To use the Republicans' (misplaced) household analogy, if a household was debt-free but unemployed, would the members of that household feel they were on the right track? We've cut programs and credits to the poor, cut education funding, and gave back $800 million in transportation money, to name a few.  Based on Wisconsin's job growth ranking, most would conclude we're going the wrong way.

I'm not sure Republicans really know which way "the right direction" is.

Sunday, June 17, 2012

Democrats Getting Republicans Out Of Debt (Again)

From U.S Debt Load Falling At Fastest Pace Since 1950s:

  • Four years after the storm hit, the economy is still deleveraging. And it’s very hard for any economy to grow when everyone is focused on increasing their savings.
  • Total domestic — public and private — debt as a share of the economy has declined for 12 quarters in a row after surging over the previous decade.
  • As much as we hear politicians, pundits, tea-party patriots and the Congressional Budget Office obsessing about government debt, it was excessive private debt — not public debt — that caused the 2008 financial meltdown. And it was private debt — some of it since transferred to the public — that lies behind the current European debt crisis. 
  • In fact, since the recession ended in June 2009, total U.S. debt has risen at the slowest pace since they began keeping records in the early 1950s. 
  • The ratio of total debt to gross domestic product has fallen from 3.73 times GDP to 3.36 times.

Friday, August 19, 2011

Sunday, November 7, 2010

Sacrificing The Truth

In discussing the latest Milwaukee County budget, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel again spreads misinformation and takes shots at public workers. Part of their recurring theme of bashing unions and the government, blaming them for taxes, spending, and most of our social and political ills.

"Private employees have been required to take pay cuts, furlough days, cuts in their companies' contributions to retirement benefits and have made their sacrifices. They see no reason why public employees shouldn't feel some of the pain," the Journal editorializes.

To imply public workers have not made sacrifices, the Journal is either blind or knowingly delusional liars.

As Roger Bybee wrote (regarding Scott Walker, but which applies to the Journal and conservatives in general), they "would rather attack the benefits of government employees than argue that all working people deserve good benefits." Shouldn't we be trying to make labor conditions and quality of life better for workers? Or, should we all be minimum wage workers without health care nor any chance of ever retiring?

Is the Journal unaware of the 26 furlough days county workers were subjected to? A roughly 10 percent pay cut. Are they unaware of pay freezes, furlough days, and increased health care costs for public workers, in general? Teachers, fire fighters, police, and a whole host of public workers have been fired or laid off. No sacrifices? Claiming such is a complete distortion of the facts and terrible reporting on the part of the Journal.

Yet another example of the Journal's biased, uninformed, and disingenuous journalism.

For Further Reading:
How About Writing About The Good Things Public Workers Do
Local Governments Fire Teachers
Public Sector Job Losses Front And Center
State Budget Crisis Killing Economy
State, City Job Cuts Taint Recovery
The Struggle For A Workers Recovery
Walker Standing On The Necks Of County Workers

Sunday, July 11, 2010

Forum Unable To Avert Recession

Tom Daykin reports the findings of a new study of the Main Street Milwaukee program, conducted by the Public Policy Forum, shows the program has unclear goals and is in poor condition.

The study focuses on the years 2005 through 2009. Now, the program may have coordination, funding, and vision issues. But to draw any definitive conclusions from data gathered in which half of the years being studied were recessionary is unfair.

To knock business and job creation during such a period is ridiculous. Is the Public Policy Forum unaware that the country, and the world, has been losing jobs? Do they really believe "more expertise in economic development" would have changed the program's outcomes during this recession?

This is analogous to saying the Public Policy Forum is failing the public because it hasn't developed public policies to help Milwaukee avoid the negative consequences of the recession. So, according to their own logic, the funders of the Forum should demand more accountability of the Forum managers, hire people with more public policy expertise, and specify the Forum's mission.

Sunday, January 31, 2010

Pushing On A String

John Torinus has penned another misguided and misinformed piece, Entrepreneurs, rather than government, will help create jobs, for the Journal Sentinel.

I've already taken Torinus to task for his fictitious claims regarding small businesses and job creation. His latest drivel is merely a variation of the same theme.

He also uses this most recent column, in a very roundabout way, to bring it all back to a classic right-wing panacea - the business climate. Which, to translate from Republican, means lower taxes. Another topic on which I've had the pleasure of throttling Torinus and his mistaken ideas.

The most glaring error in Torinus' latest mess is his obliviousness to our current recession. Spewing on about entrepreneurs opening new businesses and creating jobs is a cliched though plausible suggestion in a normally functioning economy. In the midst of a recession, with lending contracted, and extremely reduced demand, such a proposition is preposterous.

Sunday, March 15, 2009

Lessons In Greed

A nice synopsis is given here by Keith Olbermann showing Wall Street is primarily to blame for our current catastrophe.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Free Market Collapses (Again)

Within the last century our economy has experienced peaks and valleys punctuated by (now) two depressions. Presently, we're not (neither, officially, is the NBER) yet referring to what we're experiencing as a depression. Although, if we add together the list of things we need to accomplish and/or repair - unemployment, poverty, educational inadequacies, health care, housing, financial regulation, manufacturing, farming, needed infrastructure maintenance, climate change, to name just a few - it is a daunting task, and nothing but "depression" can describe it.

It's also interesting to note that both of the worst economic times in our recent history occurred after bouts of, what I like to call, "free market flu." The belief that the market is somehow a lone, all-knowing entity. That it is not somehow merely a creation of, or lack thereof, laws and regulations and societal institutions (laws and regulations are kind of like the game-board upon which our actual lives are played). Each time we've allowed ourselves to reach a fever pitch of the ole' laissez-faire attitude - culminating in 1929 & 2008 - we've collectively destroyed far more wealth with our greed (once the bubble pops) than we gained from the short-sighted speculation beforehand.

Let's also keep in mind that the gains go to mostly a top, select few. "Free" market practices as preached by it's disciples have never produced the gains, growth, or shared prosperity that they claim. Our employment is basically the financial speculators' insurance plan. Keep enough rats running on the wheel so that we can still provide something worthwhile to sell in the global market, just to keep up enough credit-worthiness for Wall Street's movers-and-shakers to get Chinese loans to make highly-leveraged and risky financial bets on everything under the sun. But then everything blows up. The managers and brokers keep their bonuses, salaries, and options. The loses incurred because of their poor management are paid by the U.S. Government (us). They get a meal. We're just left with the bill. This is criminal.

This is what happens when a country believes a bit too much in it's own hype, and forgets to give respect to the professions that provide the real long-term capabilities for the Country to do quality research and development, to manufacture it's own necessities, to provide for it's own energy and transportation needs, and to have the intellectual capacities to make technological innovation possible. This isn't just economic security, it's national security.

When the shit hits the fan, everyone comes with their hand out to Uncle Sam. (Suddenly socialism and redistribution aren't such dirty words.) The U.S. Government is supposed to sit idly by while the Masters of the Universe * (aka The Fortune 500 & Wall Street) pontificate about how they can create financial innovations to reduce risk, increase credit, provide high-yield returns, and make everything it's utmost efficient because of a magic place called the market, where everything is Utopian if you just leave it alone.

But when you leave the market alone, if it should happen to destroy retirement accounts, pensions, jobs, or employment opportunities, you must simply step in to cover the market's debts (aka private speculators loses) and leave it be. If you try to regulate, the next time will only be worse. Even though the market is supposedly somehow always moving toward an optimal state without regulation. Supply-side economics: one incorrect economic assumption after another in circularly infuriating logic.

It's been the cause of two depressions. The effects of the misguided supply-side theories have impoverished generations. Can we please let go of the chatter as if this is some sort of credible economic theory? We know what works. We know what gives modest returns, predictable growth, and stability. Can't we just do that and stop appeasing the discredited free-marketeers?