Showing posts with label unemployment rate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label unemployment rate. Show all posts

Sunday, September 11, 2022

Turn That Frown Upside Down

An overarching theme for Republicans, regarding the next election cycle, is this idea that things are an economic mess. Times are tough, everyone is struggling. 

Yet, in many metrics, a reasonable, non-partisan observer would most likely conclude that times are, generally, good. 

Unemployment

The current unemployment rate is under 4% (3.7% as of today for the U.S.; 3% for Wisconsin). And, despite an historically low unemployment rate, wages are rising.

Interest Rates

Historically speaking, interest rates are low. In the 1970s, rates were mid-7 percent. The 1980s saw rates rise to mid-9 percent. The 1990s started around 10 percent, and finished around 8 percent. From 2000 through the 2010s, rates fell from 8 percent to 3 percent. The 2020s have seen rates rise from high-3 percent to the current mid-5 percent.

Inflation Rate

The majority of noise in the inflation rate hangs on the energy sector. A better descriptor for this phenomenon is price-gouging. The energy sector doubled gasoline prices and laughed all the way to the bank as Republicans and their accomplices manufactured the price-gouging into a Joe Biden spending (inflation) problem. It's no coincidence that as the energy sector has gouged less (gas prices have come down), inflation has fallen.

Saturday, June 4, 2022

Companies Keep Hiring

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 390,000 in May, above the 328,000 Dow Jones estimate.

The unemployment rate held at 3.6%, while a more encompassing jobless rate edged higher to 7.1%.

Average hourly earnings rose slightly less than expected but were still up 5.2% from a year ago.

Leisure and hospitality led gains, followed by professional and business services then warehousing and transportation. [source]

Fox News thinks all of this is bad. The delusion continues. Being contrarian for the sake of being contrarian continues. 

Sunday, December 28, 2014

Wisconsin's Private-Sector Growth Rate Lags Nation

Wisconsin's private-sector growth rate lags nation
A report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that Wisconsin gained 35,021 private-sector jobs in the 12 months from June 2013 to June 2014, a 1.5% growth rate that ranked the state 32nd among the 50 states. 
The state lagged the national growth rate of 2.3% for private-sector jobs in the period, continuing a trend that had been in place for the three previous years: Wisconsin has trailed the national rate of private-sector job creation since the second quarter of 2011, the data show.

Monday, November 19, 2012

Truly Unfortunate

Scott Walker was recently in California at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library & Museum giving a speech about his plans for Wisconsin. The Reagan Library, where the biggest Republican whores go to grovel before their sugar daddies and kingmakers. Yes, what better place to start talking about future Wisconsin legislative plans than in California? But, as they say, you've got to go where the money is.

"We think if we want to continue the economic success we've had over the last year and a half, again one of the best ways to do this is to put money back in the hands of entrepreneurs, more money back in the hands of small business owners, more money back in the hands of our consumers...we're going to continue to lower our property taxes, and we're going to put in place an aggressive income tax reduction and reform in the state of Wisconsin because we believe we can continue to be one of the leaders in the country, not just in reform but ultimately in results." said Walker.




Economic success? Since Walker took over, Wisconsin is near the bottom in job growth among the states.

The Walker plan includes: tax cuts (of course), making Wisconsin's voucher program for private schools available to more students (even though research has shown the program doesn't produce any better results), and to eliminate "unnecessary" state regulations (vague, as usual). Basically, tax cuts and deregulation, alongside funneling more public dollars to unaccountable semi-private entities. Sound familiar? We've heard these recommendations from Republicans for decades now. What has it got us? Stagnant wages, volatile retirements, expensive health care, and increasing inequality.

"It's unfortunate he's going to try to continue to go down this war path of ideology instead of actually trying to address the real problems that we've got. It looks like he's putting his donors above his voters," said Chris Larson.

Truly unfortunate.

Saturday, October 6, 2012

Republicans Angry Economy Improving

As the USA Today reported, regarding Republicans accusations and conspiracies over the latest jobs report:

"Bollocks,"' Wharton School economist Justin Wolfers said. "Once you understand how the numbers are collected and processed, you understand that it's literally impossible to fool with the numbers.''

Manipulating the unemployment rate would require the cooperation of thousands of people -- not to mention violating federal laws.

The unemployment rate is based on a survey of 60,000 households, conducted at the middle of each month because holidays, which can result in short-term hiring or layoffs, are usually at the beginning or end of a month, said Karen Kosanovich, an economist at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics who works on the survey.

About 1,500 Census workers gather the data, and the survey dates back to 1940, Kosanovich said.



Since The Great Recession

The Economy Has Been Growing, Since Mid-2009 [CBPP]


Private Payroll Employment Has Grown For 31 Months

 The Unemployment Rate Is Near The Same Level It Was After Ronald Reagan's First Term

Weekend Reading

Foreclosure Inventory Levels Still Declining
GE's Jack Welch Knows About Cooking The Books
Paul Ryan Wants U.S. To Be A Tax Shelter
The Outrageous Attack On The BLS
The Romance Of Start-Up Businesses
Romney Told 27 Myths During The Debate
Wall Street Pay Too High

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

The Unemployment Rate

Republicans are pointing out that unemployment was 7.8 percent when Barack Obama took office.

It's now 8.1 percent.

See, that proves Obama is performing poorly. Obama has presided over an 4% increase in the unemployment rate.

As the graph shows, unemployment was steadily increasing since the spring of 2008, under the direction of George W. Bush.


As you can see from this graph, when George W. Bush took office, the unemployment rate was 4.2 percent. Bush and the Republicans presided over an 86 percent increase in the unemployment rate. [If we only look at Bush's first term, which ended with a 5.7% rate, the unemployment rate increased 36 percent.]

[source]

Obama hasn't been able to make a dent in the unemployment rate, but he has held it at bay. We're no longer losing 750,000 jobs per month, as we were when George W. Bush handed over the reins. And, all this has been done despite the fact that the Republicans have opposed and obstructed every piece of legislation the Obama administration has proposed.

Aside:
Bill Clinton entered office with a 7.3% unemployment rate. Leaving office with a 4.2% rate, he presided over a decline of 43 percent in the unemployment rate.

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

The Only Responsible Choice: Tom Barrett

Scott Walker's primary tactic for the recall election is to smear Tom Barrett on unemployment and taxes in Milwaukee. The unemployment rate has increased and taxes have gone up under Barrett. Let's ignore the fact that unemployment is up everywhere. That's why it's called a recession. Let's also disregard the fact that unemployment increased 34 percent for Milwaukee County during Scott Walker's reign.

And, we might as well lose all context and not mention that Milwaukee is also home to the majority of poor and minority citizens in the state. That might have something to do with the unemployment and taxes in Milwaukee, but let's not talk about that.

Let's also not forget Scott Walker took over $60 million dollars (considering the City and MPS) away from Milwaukee in his recent, contentious budget. Should Barrett simply fire teachers, police and firefighters to cover the loss? Or should he end all spending for the poor, the elderly and children? Which services should he stop? Scott Walker refused nearly a billion dollars in aid. How much would that have alleviated unemployment and taxes across the state?

When private companies wreck the economy, why aren't Republicans calling for them to be more efficient and trim more workers? Shouldn't the participants in the sectors responsible for the economic collapse be the ones sacrificing? Conservatives love talking on and on about overpaid public workers and union executives. Where is the outcry regarding CEO compensation? When will Republicans reprimand private executives unsubstantiated and overblown pay? It was alright for the government to step in and fire the General Motor's CEO (in the highly unionized auto industry) but no such actions have taken place on Wall Street, where the majority of criminals responsible for our latest economic debacle still remain.


The public sector not only pays for public services, but we also subsidize and provide tax breaks to the private sector. And, the government is actually supposed to regulate the private sector with regard to the public interest. So where is the demand for sacrifice and accountability from these Robber Barons? We refer to them as "private," but their decisions have public ramifications (and they receive public money), thus, the government needs to regulate their actions...and punish or fine them when necessary. I'd go as far as to say we should just usurp all their ill-gotten gains for the public good. But Republicans prefer firing nurses and teachers.

Republicans are great at making speeches about public workers needing to sacrifice, work for less, pay more for health care, etc., but where are the same calls for responsibility when private sector actors' actions destroy a bank, close a company, or tank an economy?

In a recession, Republicans want to cut public services while giving public dollars to private firms. Yet, they make no qualifications for such largess. Just fork over the money, these private entrepreneurs know what to do with it. Oh, and remember, we're also broke. Austerity only applies to the 99%.


Scott Walker's history has shown that his answer to a tight budget is to have someone else take over a program, to end a program, or to privatize it. As County Executive, his budgets attempted to slash county services, especially for the most vulnerable. The County Board would overrule Walker's Draconian cuts and then Walker would claim leadership, fiscal responsibility and vision. I don't hear Walker touting his record of running up the debt of Milwaukee County. Has he mentioned unemployment went up under his watch at the County? Does he mention the costs of the lawsuits due to his "leadership"?

I'd prefer cities and states stop giving tax cuts, tax breaks and subsidies to the already well-to-do. Sadly, in today's "government is here to serve business" mindset, these types of giveaways (Harley Davidson, Mercury Marine, Miller Park, the Bradley Center, etc.) are increasing. Business is our savior. They've got it all figured out. Strangely, though, they can't seem to get anything done without the government assuming most of the risk and coughing up the initial funding for projects. Sorry, but you're not a great business guru or economic genius because you've bought enough politicians to write legislation to subsidize and insure your private venture's success.



Wisconsin's own Department of Commerce has been transformed, under Walker, into the Wisconsin Economic Development Corporation. Rather than managing the interests of the state alongside those of business, this entity is now all about promotion, marketing, and funneling money to private business interests. Again, we're supposed to believe business knows how to get things done, thus it is justifiable to use public dollars to help them out. Therefore, we need a public agency performing businesses' PR and fundraising?


The point of all this is to illustrate the bizarro world in which the Republicans operate. In their view, government is inefficient, too big, and burdensome. The "free" market and private enterprise are a well-oiled machine. Government should not pay employees living wages. Government work isn't even real work. Government services are silly and trivial. The sanctity of the "free" market is what makes peoples' lives worth living. Roads, water, clean air, schools, police and fire protection - these are just a few examples of those worthless public works. BUT (and here is where the Republican craziness really gets interesting) we should all be in favor of public dollars funding private speculation...because it might lead to job creation.


Public governance has been transformed from performing services we all enjoy and appreciate into a casino. And, the Republicans own the casino. Now the government exists to use taxpayer dollars to subsidize private business escapades. Before our taxes maintained/fixed roads, provided clean parks, and ensured good schools. Tangible things we could all experience and benefit from. Today, those are secondary. Government dollars are now "invested" in the private sector with the hope of job creation.

Regarding Scott Walker's own job creation accomplishments as Wisconsin governor, the record is somewhere between losing roughly 20,000 jobs or gaining 30,000 job. Thus, if we assume the best possible outcome based on this 1-year performance, Walker is on pace to create approximately 120,000 jobs over his first 4-year term. Which will be 130,000 below his campaign promise of creating 250,000 jobs in his first term.


If someone simply promising the sky and then failing miserably is your idea of governance, Scott Walker is your guy. If reasoned, deliberate, methodical decision-making, with everyone's best interests in mind, sounds more like quality governance, Tom Barrett is the only choice.

Vote Tom Barrett, Mahlon Mitchell June 5th!

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Life Is Just A Fantasy

Mitt Romney is upset. President Obama hasn't lowered the unemployment rate below 4 percent.

The unemployment rate has only been below four percent 6 times since 1948. 1951, 1952, and 1966-1969. Times during which the U.S. had Democrat presidents - Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson.

The Republican's straw-man campaigning continues.

Update:

Paul Krugman offers perspective on this Romney situation:

"OK, not exactly. But he did say that we should be creating 500,000 jobs a month — which almost never happens — and that we should have 4 percent unemployment, which is way below almost anyone’s estimate of the lowest rate we can have without accelerating inflation.

But he understands the economy, right?

Incidentally, since Romney is proposing a complete return to Bush economic policies, it might be interesting to note the average rate of job creation during Bush’s first 7 years in the White House — that is, his record even if you ignore the catastrophe at the end. And that average monthly rate, from the BLS, was … drum roll … 66,000."

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Huge Cuts In Public Employment


Paul Krugman notes, "Here’s a comparison of changes in government employment (federal, state, and local) during the first four years of three presidents who came to office amid a troubled economy. That spike early on is Census hiring; once that was past, the Obama years shaped up as an era of huge cuts in public employment compared with previous experience. If public employment had grown the way it did under Bush, we’d have 1.3 million more government workers, and probably an unemployment rate of 7 percent or less."

Sunday, March 11, 2012

If Not For

While the election season heats up, among endless platitudes about 'getting the economy going' and 'job creation,' let's all take a moment to reflect (sadly) on Scott Walker's return of $810 million in federal aid.

Nationally, even though we've seen 23 consecutive months of private sector job growth, Republican politicians and pundits are claiming the economy is performing poorly. In Wisconsin, where we rank poorly in comparison to the other states in job growth during the recovery, Scott Walker is claiming 'job creation' success based on a slightly declining unemployment rate.

Where would Wisconsin be right now had it taken advantage of $810 million in stimulus? Where would the unemployment rate be? Where would the employment population ratio be? What long-term effects would be incubating and growing due to the massive investment in our public transportation? How many businesses, jobs, and residents will Wisconsin miss out on due to this lack of needed investment during a crucial economic time?

An opportunity cost is "the cost of an alternative that must be forgone in order to pursue a certain action. Put another way, the benefits you could have received by taking an alternative action."

Had Wisconsin taken the alternative action of not electing Scott Walker, Wisconsin would have seen a billion more dollars worth of investment during our country's second worst economic downturn. In the current economic climate, this billion-dollar disappearing-act should eliminate any thoughts of Mr. Walker's ability to govern effectively.

Just one [more] alarmingly significant reason for Wisconsinites to vote against Walker whenever the recall occurs.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

Gridlock & Recessions - Or - Thanks, Republicans!

Typical hypocrisy and myth-making coming from the right-wingers.

Sean Hannity and the other FOX charlatans are complaining because President Obama took a vacation.

They're very upset.

Suddenly they're blathering on and on about the "real" unemployment rate.

Suddenly they're worried about workers and creating jobs.



They conveniently ignore George W. Bush's economic record (and the record of all Republican policies, in general).

When Republicans are in power, where is the outrage when:
  • our deficit is doubling (Reagan) and tripling (Bush)?
  • workers' wages are stagnating (as they did during the Bush administration)?
  • unemployment continues to grow (as it did during George W. Bush)?
Until the Republicans actually follow the rules on the inside of the box, this game can't be played, and we certainly can't have an adult conversion. How can we ever formulate responsible and fair public policy under such ludicrous circumstances?

It's arguing with people willing to cut off their own nose just to spite their face.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Friday, July 24, 2009

Unemployment Rate

Using BLS seasonally adjusted unemployment figures, here’s a look back at the performance of the last 4 administrations:

Reagan – From January 1981 to December 1982 the unemployment rate increased 44 percent. Over Reagan’s entirety the unemployment rate decreased 28 percent.

Bush 1 – From January 1989 to January 1993 the unemployment rate increased 35 percent.

Clinton – From January 1993 to January 2001 the unemployment rate decreased 43 percent.

Bush 2 – From January 2001 to January 2009 the unemployment rate increased 81 percent.

For those keeping score (from best performance to worst):

1. Clinton
2. Reagan
3. Bush 1
4. Bush 2

President Obama has seen a 25 percent increase in the unemployment rate over his first six months in office.