Long-Term Budget Picture

Our New Look At The Long-Term Budget Picture

Since we issued our previous long-termprojections in early 2010, the projected debt-to-GDP ratio in 2040 has shrunk by half — from 218 percent of GDP to 99 percent. The long-term “realistic baseline” of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB), a nonpartisan fiscal watchdog,paints a similar picture, with a projected debt-to-GDP ratio of 108 percent in 2040. (CRFB issued its projection before the Medicare and Social Security trustees released their 2013 reports, which slightly improve the outlook.) The Center for American Progress’s recent long-term forecast is also similar.